Wagering

A lot of the editorials and commentaries that I have been reading over the last few weeks have dealt with the influence of the tea party. How there success in getting elected is going to effect the political agenda. There are two basic theories.

1. They are going to have a big influence and force the agenda to move toward cutting taxes and spending. Or
2. They are going to be co-opted by the traditional Republican establishment which will favor tax cuts and corporate welfare for the industries and interest groups that are their traditional supporters and which (by the way) are policies that have never reduced spending or the deficit.

The Democrats did not sweep in in 2008 because of a wave of liberal populist fever. They won because the centrist arm of the party activated the vote and took the middle ground from the Republicans. Once they won however, all the cards were with the party leadership in Congress. Party leadership is all about seniority not the forces that caused the electoral success. So the liberal, Pelosi-Reid wing came into power because of their seniority and proclaimed the vote a referendum on their uber-liberal agenda.

The result? Two years later the middle/centrist voters move en mass to the Republicans. Who are the senior Republicans in Congress who will get the leadership posts and set the agenda? Not tea party candidates. They're traditional Republicans.

My bets are on option #2